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There is a discrepancy between the two translations of the relevant text I linked to the day before yesterday regarding whether Bartolomé de las Casas meant that the Hispaniolan native population declined by over two-thirds between 1494 and 1496 or between 1494 and 1506. The text is ambiguous, stating that this decline occured “from the year 94 to 6”.

The archaeological facts do not support the idea that the pre-Columbian population of Hispaniola was much greater than a quarter million. The site of Bas Saline/Navidad, said to be a “chiefly residence” and “one of the largest Taíno village sites reported in Haiti” is only some “95,000 square meters”, or 23 and a half acres, in area. Using the typical urban 100 person per acre rule (which is probably highballing in this context), this Taíno capital village was home to only some 2350 people. Assuming five other such capital villages on Hispaniola and 95% of the Hispaniolan population living outside these capital villages, one gets a pre-Columbian population of Hispaniola of some 235,000 people-pretty close to the results of my exponential model published a day before yesterday.

Also, by my estimate, the peak population density of pre-Columbian Hispaniola was just over 3 persons per square kilometer. This is the same as the population densities of such lands as Iceland, Australia, and Suriname. Population densities higher than those of Laos (population of capital: over half a million) or Estonia (population of capital: over two fifths of a million) are highly implausible for pre-Columbian Hispaniola.

I’m now wondering what the pre-Columbian population of Cuba was. Using the population density figure mentioned above, I guess something like 300,000 , but I’m probably overestimating.