Don’t Trust, but Verify, all Economic Forecasts



Sometimes, the most useful tool in economic forecasting is a brick to smash against heads. Natural disasters and their equivalents don’t cause recessions in modern economies (Haiti is not a modern economy). A few collapsed buildings have never ever caused a recession on their own, no matter how much their collapse is talked about on TV news.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

3 thoughts on “Don’t Trust, but Verify, all Economic Forecasts”

    1. NBER says the recession was from March to November (of course, the unemployment peak was over a year later). November was when Industrial Production bottomed out. Two months is not a recession, and the collapse of a few buildings has never caused a recession. The roots of the recession lay in the popping of the stock bubble and a decline in exports to East Asia. The inverted yield curve and the sudden spike in Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Small Firms is a sure indicator the roots of the recession did not lie in an event that happened in the second half of 2001. Sure, people continued feeling the after-effects of the 2001 recession well after 2001. But 9/11 had nothing to do with the 2001 recession, except that 9/11 happened during this recession. Even the unemployment rate in NYC was barely affected by 9/11 (perhaps, even, not at all).

  1. Dear Sir, I have replied to you on Dr. Murphy’s blog. But let me just stipulate that because I’ve been recorded as saying “Dr. Murphy’s blog” in print does not mean that I endorse the notion that the word “blog” implies Dr. Murphy. In fact the words “Dr. Murphy” modify the word “blog” in such a way to identify a TYPE of blog, or a specific blog, but not to permanently attach new and different meaning to the word “blog.” In the future if you see me say the word “blog” without reference to Dr. Murphy please assume that I am speaking of a different blog, or of blogs in general, not that I am just lazily dropping the words “Dr. Murphy” out of convenience or habit.

    Again, having used the words thus and in that order are not meant to imply that the word blog now has a meaning which includes Dr. Murphy. Of course, I assume that you know that. But the link you used to ostensibly prove me wrong makes me doubt it just enough to have to make that clarification.

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