Two of my preferred and most valued leading indicators are not going in a good direction. If the year-to-year growth rate of Real M1 goes below zero and there’s no tech boom, the country’s screwed. In any case, I continue to predict that there will not be a period of longer than ten years in U.S. history with no recession. Nevertheless, the Leading Index for the United States hasn’t experienced any rapid deterioration, so the next recession, while possibly within sight, is not imminent.
I’m certainly not saying the U.S. is in a recession now. All I’m saying is that with tighter monetary policy in this environment, it soon will be. Of course, an economic deterioration in 2016 will be really good for the Republican nominee.