Super Tuesday Retrospective

My predictions.

1. My prediction that Trump would win every state on Super Tuesday to the East of the Mississippi was 100% correct. Nothing much to say here.

2. My incorrect Oklahoma and Alaska predictions resulted from underestimating the power of caucuses and closed primaries to favor True Church-going Conservatives, who are more likely to favor Senator Ted Cruz.

3. The most interesting aspect of Super Tuesday was a re-evaluation of Rubio’s ceilings. Rubio not only won his first counties outside of Romneyland (Lynchburg in Virginia, as well as Cobb and Clark counties in Georgia) , but he also “won” “his” “first” “state”.

I take the Minnesota results with an ounce of salt. Indeed, they are so bizarrely contrary to the 2012 results, I suspect voter fraud. Romney+Gingrich combined didn’t even get 28% of the vote in Minnesota in 2012. Santorum+Paul combined won a strong majority there (over 70%). The counties that voted for Paul in 2012 were divided between Trump (Koochiching, Benton), Cruz (Red Lake), and Bought Robot (Blue Earth). 48795 votes were cast in the 2012 Minnesota Caucus, while 112755 votes -more than twice as many- were cast in the 2016 Minnesota Caucus, consistent with my allegation of voter fraud. In fact, the Donald managed to win more votes in Minnesota in 2016 than Rick Santorum did in 2012, despite coming in “third” place. Ben Carson managed to win more votes in Minnesota in 2016 than The Presumptive Nominee did in 2012. So either Rubio had a really excellent ground strategy to vastly improve caucus attendance over 2012 on caucus night, or there was a whole lot of ballot-box stuffing going on in Minnesota. If the former, Politics is not about Policy is a more prescient insight than I thought.

4. The results in Texas were quite fortunate; the Zodiac killer failed to get the 20% of the vote necessary for him to get state-wide delegates. Thus, he won only four delegates, while the Only Man Who Can Even Remotely Save the Nation won 38. Senator Ted Cruz won 99.

5. Arkansas was very interesting. Trump won a lot of lily-white counties and beat out Senator Ted Cruz by just over two percentage points. My guess is that a lot of Trump’s support there comes from that state’s southern heritage, while Oklahoma’s heritage is more Plains. Trump’s victory in Arkansas suggests a strong showing in Louisiana and Missouri. Arkansas is right in the middle of the Santorum divide, with Trump winning Santorum’s counties in Tennessee, but Cruz winning most of his counties in Oklahoma. Arkansas’s 2012 primary was too late to give any information about what candidates the residents of that state really supported.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

5 thoughts on “Super Tuesday Retrospective”

  1. Regarding the Minnesota Caucus I don’t suspect voter fraud as strongly as you do.
    1) Weather
    The 2012 Caucus on February 7th was slightly colder than the one this year. This can make a difference in caucus turnout, and I would suggest that a small difference in temperature when the temperature is quite low can increase turnout more than a similar difference at higher temperatures.
    2) MN is generally Liberal
    I think a lot of liberals in MN were afraid of Trump. Several caucus goers who I personally know told me that they only attended the Republican caucus because they were afraid of Trump, otherwise they would have attended the Democratic caucus.
    3) Anecdote
    This was my first ever caucus, so I can’t speak to the number of people there compared to other years but a) it was incredibly crowded. b) Several long time caucusers said something to the effect of “I’ve never seen this many people at a caucus.” c) In my precinct Rubio won 35 to 9, and the 9 was Kasich. Trump got 3, Cruz got 2, a write in for “Jerry” got 1, and Ben Carson got 0. I live in a more liberal neighborhood than most Minnesotans, but from what I have observed I would be willing to say that Rubio would be a strong candidate here. Several of my friends, and myself, predicted Rubio would win the state before any of the results had been reported.

    It was warmer, MN is liberal, and I observed large turnout at the caucus site. All of these factors make me doubt voter fraud.

    1. What happened in 2012, then? And why are they voting for empty suit Rubio when they didn’t vote for the empty suit Romney (or even Gingrich) in 2012? Again, if it’s not voter fraud, politics is not about policy is a way more prescient slogan than I thought.

      “Several caucus goers who I personally know told me that they only attended the Republican caucus because they were afraid of Trump, otherwise they would have attended the Democratic caucus.”

      -Did they consider the fact there was no way Rubio was better from a left-wing perspective (except maybe on immigration)? Strict abortion stance, nutty foreign policy, has actual conservative healthcare and tax plans, will likely not appoint left-wing Supreme Court justices etc.?

      And thanks for your account of what you saw and heard. I now view voter fraud as less likely a possibility than I previously did.

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