1. My prediction that Trump would win every state on Super Tuesday to the East of the Mississippi was 100% correct. Nothing much to say here.
2. My incorrect Oklahoma and Alaska predictions resulted from underestimating the power of caucuses and closed primaries to favor True Church-going Conservatives, who are more likely to favor Senator Ted Cruz.
3. The most interesting aspect of Super Tuesday was a re-evaluation of Rubio’s ceilings. Rubio not only won his first counties outside of Romneyland (Lynchburg in Virginia, as well as Cobb and Clark counties in Georgia) , but he also “won” “his” “first” “state”.
I take the Minnesota results with an ounce of salt. Indeed, they are so bizarrely contrary to the 2012 results, I suspect voter fraud. Romney+Gingrich combined didn’t even get 28% of the vote in Minnesota in 2012. Santorum+Paul combined won a strong majority there (over 70%). The counties that voted for Paul in 2012 were divided between Trump (Koochiching, Benton), Cruz (Red Lake), and Bought Robot (Blue Earth). 48795 votes were cast in the 2012 Minnesota Caucus, while 112755 votes -more than twice as many- were cast in the 2016 Minnesota Caucus, consistent with my allegation of voter fraud. In fact, the Donald managed to win more votes in Minnesota in 2016 than Rick Santorum did in 2012, despite coming in “third” place. Ben Carson managed to win more votes in Minnesota in 2016 than The Presumptive Nominee did in 2012. So either Rubio had a really excellent ground strategy to vastly improve caucus attendance over 2012 on caucus night, or there was a whole lot of ballot-box stuffing going on in Minnesota. If the former, Politics is not about Policy is a more prescient insight than I thought.
4. The results in Texas were quite fortunate; the Zodiac killer failed to get the 20% of the vote necessary for him to get state-wide delegates. Thus, he won only four delegates, while the Only Man Who Can Even Remotely Save the Nation won 38. Senator Ted Cruz won 99.
5. Arkansas was very interesting. Trump won a lot of lily-white counties and beat out Senator Ted Cruz by just over two percentage points. My guess is that a lot of Trump’s support there comes from that state’s southern heritage, while Oklahoma’s heritage is more Plains. Trump’s victory in Arkansas suggests a strong showing in Louisiana and Missouri. Arkansas is right in the middle of the Santorum divide, with Trump winning Santorum’s counties in Tennessee, but Cruz winning most of his counties in Oklahoma. Arkansas’s 2012 primary was too late to give any information about what candidates the residents of that state really supported.