Saturday Night Retrospective

1. Three out of four predictions were correct. No problems here, little more needs to be said. Kansas went a little stronger for Cruz than I thought; Trump was bailed out in Kentucky by its poorest White-majority precincts. Cruz was prevented from winning a majority in Kansas due to Rubio’s refusal to drop out. Louisiana was bound to go for Trump, but Cruz performed well due to Louisiana’s proximity to Texas and its closed primary.

2. Maine went full Minnesota here. It’s a blue state that had a traditionally sparsely-attended caucus with a 2016 outcome wildly inconsistent with what we’d normally expect resulting from extreme gains in voter turnout. Turnout was 333% of its 2012 level; an even greater increase over 2012 than that in Minnesota. Donald J. Trump won more votes than were cast in the 2012 Maine caucus. No doubt much of the caucus attendance was motivated by #StopTrump, with the candidate favored being the Victor of Texas, not the Neocon Walter Mondale. No doubt the closed caucus format favored tradcons over Trump fans. Had Maine always had a Massachusetts-style primary, this wouldn’t have happened and Trump would have won.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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