How Trump Wins (or Loses)

Start with the 2012 electoral college map:

That’s 206 electoral college votes for the Trump, right off the bat.

Add Virginia (Rmoney: 47.28%), Ohio (Rmoney: 47.69%), and Florida (Rmoney: 49.13%).

That’s 266 electoral college votes for the Republican. In any case, Florida will go for Trump.

And $Hillary still wins.

Now that we’re out of easy states, what’s needed for Trump to win is exactly one of the following Slippery Small Swing States:

Pennsylvania (not Small, not Swing, but Slippery- Rmoney: 46.59%)

New Hampshire (Rmoney: 46.40%)

Iowa (Rmoney: 46.18%)

Colorado (Rmoney: 46.13%)

Nevada (Rmoney: 45.68%)

In conclusion, Trump’s best bet is aggressively funding the Green Party. Hopefully, Jill Stein will be able to pick up some of Hillary’s votes in the Slippery Small Swing States, especially among New Hampshire’s Berniebros. There is evidence Trump will be able to do better in New Hampshire’s democratic-leaning districts than the average non-Trump Republican presidential candidate would have. Trump won more votes than Her in the primary there back in February.

Here’s some encouraging info from Wikipedia:

Consequently, Obama became the first incumbent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940 to get reelected with fewer electoral votes and a lower popular vote percentage

That 2008 aura may be fading. Without incumbent advantage, Obama might well have lost the electoral vote in 2012.

Of course, I supported Obama in 2012, because Romney was a terrible candidate. He was elitist, unpatriotic, and establishment.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

10 thoughts on “How Trump Wins (or Loses)”

  1. “That’s 206 electoral college votes for the Trump, right off the bat.”

    Nope, can’t assume he’ll hold Romney’s states. He’s going to lose Utah. His map will look barely better than Goldwater’s. He’s not going to pick up a single state. He’s going to lose states.

    1. There is no way in hell a single true Mormon would ever vote for $hillary. What makes you think Trump would lose states? Didn’t you predict Trump wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell at getting the nomination? What you have to understand, Andrew, is that Trump is a natural winner. Hillary’s ambitious, too, but she’s so commonly hated on the American Right, and Trump is such an unexpected opponent for her, her ambition isn’t going to be of much worth here. Trump will pull no punches. Hillary will be unable to respond effectively and promptly. And the press is going to cover every word of it.

      1. “There is no way in hell a single true Mormon would ever vote for $hillary.”

        They don’t need to. They just need to not vote for Trump. He’s trailing Hillary head to head in Utah, mostly because a very high percentage say they won’t vote if it’s Hillary against Trump.

        “Didn’t you predict Trump wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell at getting the nomination?”

        You’re going to have a hard time finding me saying something I’ve never said, but go right ahead. I’ll wait.

        “And the press is going to cover every word of it.”

        This is like, an award worth level of deluded.

        You’ve really got to make a much more convincing case than “every unlikely thing to break right for Trump, will” when the polls disagree with you, and even more damningly, the markets disagree with you.

        1. Utah has voted majority Republican every Presidential election since 1996. It will do so in 2016, as well. The closest thing to your scenario is:

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Utah,_1992

          and Bill Clinton got the fewest votes of the three candidates. Trump not winning Utah is about the same level of ridiculousness as Jill Stein winning a state.

          My question was not rhetorical. What were your opinions on Trump in, say, August-November?

          BTW, the polls disagree with me because there is a strong inverse correlation between press coverage (as well as primary nationwide poll numbers) and poll numbers in hypothetical general election match-ups this time of year. When the press coverage shifts, so will the polls. Trump’s putting off his Summer Offensive. And believe me, the press will give massive amounts of free airtime and inkspace to the Summer Offensive.

          The markets disagree because they find it hard to believe Trump will win any of the Slippery Swing States. I understand why, but I wouldn’t put it past Trump to take PA or NH. Remember, the markets gave Rubio >50% in the days after Iowa, and he only won Minnesota. The market has a pro-establishment bias this year.

      2. Closest thing to what I’m talking about is 1964.

        “My question was not rhetorical. What were your opinions on Trump in, say, August-November?”

        If you meant to ask this question, you shouldn’t have asked a question assuming you knew what my assessment was in August-November. You were just sure because no one who doubts the outlandish Trump booster predictions must have always thought he would get nowhere.

        I don’t have good memory of exact time frames in which I’ve said/thought certain things, so I’d have to got by written record. If you want the real answer, I don’t think I was paying attention back in August-November. Very busy with a new job I’d just gotten and would soon lose. I do have written record of speculating that it was plausible that Trump would knock out a lot of other people in the race, while an establishment candidate would stick in the race to try and snatch it from him at the last minute. This is still a scenario which is still pretty plausible. If anything I underestimated how long Cruz would remain in the race, So I’d say Trump has performed at my expectations, not below. I may also have overestimated how underhanded the Republican Establishment could be and how much power they would have to snatch the nomination from Trump on a technicality. But that remains to be seen.

        But I’m also on written record since early September, saying that Republicans would probably lose this election and saying that the reason they’re expected to lose is because Trump looks increasingly likely to win the nomination.

        “BTW, the polls disagree with me because there is a strong inverse correlation between press coverage (as well as primary nationwide poll numbers) and poll numbers in hypothetical general election match-ups this time of year. When the press coverage shifts, so will the polls. Trump’s putting off his Summer Offensive. And believe me, the press will give massive amounts of free airtime and inkspace to the Summer Offensive.”

        Interesting theory. Unlike you I don’t expect the press to carry any water for Trump in the general, or for that matter for any of his attacks on Clinton to gain any traction. Clinton attacks on Trump I do, however, expect to. The Democrats are just much better and dank memes.

        “The markets disagree because they find it hard to believe Trump will win any of the Slippery Swing States. I understand why, but I wouldn’t put it past Trump to take PA or NH. Remember, the markets gave Rubio >50% in the days after Iowa, and he only won Minnesota. The market has a pro-establishment bias this year.”

        Again, an interesting theory. But not very convincing. I’m going to stick with the market.

        1. “You were just sure”

          -Only 2/3 confident.

          There are a bunch of things missing from a 1964-like scenario for it to work here:

          1. More primaries.

          2. Slow income and employment growth.

          3. No VP running after the assassination of a president; instead, a political dynast with a stained reputation.

          4. Nothing even remotely approaching the divisiveness of the segregation issue.

          If Republicans could vote for John McSame in 2008 against the untested Obama, they could vote for Donald J. Trump in 2016 against the much-tested Hillary Clinton.

          “Unlike you I don’t expect the press to carry any water for Trump in the general,”

          -His attacks on Little Marco and Megyn Kelly (and even Lying Ted) were covered quite thoroughly by the media. And Trump will make his blows outrageous, so the press will have to cover them.

          “or for that matter for any of his attacks on Clinton to gain any traction.”

          -All the attacks that could be made on Trump have already been made, both by liberals and conservatives. See Vox, the NYTimes calling him a fashist, John Oliver, etc. The attack on Trump has been unanimous, yet unsuccessful at keeping him from pretty much getting handed the nomination. Trump has nowhere to go but up in this environment, especially given the unification of the Republican Party around him. The conservative #NeverTrump attacks will stop, transforming into #AlwaysTrump and #Never$hillary. Dank memes will form up against Clinton:

          “Dynast”

          “Prostitute I once bought”

          “Rape-enabler”

          “Unlistenable voice”

          “Ultra-left”

          “Iraq+Libya (compare Trump)”

          “Classified info on server”

          “Health”

          “Bankruptcy bill”

          “Hugging W.”

          “Clinton attacks on Trump I do, however, expect to.”

          -Meanwhile, the attacks on Clinton have been uncoordinated and weak, due to Bernie lacking balls (his Bros, on the other hand…) and Republicans focusing more on fighting each other than their common enemy. Once party unification is complete at the convention, the Summer Offensive will begin, turning public opinion against Clinton (and maybe in favor of Trump, as every attack on him has been exhausted).

          “But not very convincing.”

          -Why? Those same markets thought Jeb Bush would be the most likely nominee back in September.

          I thought Jeb Bush would win the nomination (giving Hillary the election) until about October-November. I began supporting Trump in August.

      3. “The conservative #NeverTrump attacks will stop, transforming into #AlwaysTrump and #Never$hillary.”

        No, they won’t. But it’s obvious this is getting nowhere. You believe Trump will win, I think you’re wrong. Let’s leave it at that and sadly we’ll see who is right in November. I promise not to gloat.

        1. No matter what happens, Trump will win Utah (100%). I put his chances of winning Florida at 2/3 and his chances at gaining from Romney’s share of the vote at 3/4. I put his chances of winning the general at 52%.

      4. I’d say that’s an awful lot to stake on a near coin flip but unfortunately it’s not very much at stake at all.

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