I take any polls showing Cruz with a lead in Wisconsin with a huge grain of salt. Why so? First, the most populated parts of Wisconsin in 2012 seem to simply be extensions of the northern suburbs of Chicago. And Chicago in 2016 went strongly for Trump (by a double-digit margin). Indeed, in 2012, Illinois went nearly five points more strongly for Santorum in 2012 than it did for Cruz in 2016. Rick Santorum won far more Illinois counties than did Cruz. Yet, he still lost both Wisconsin and Illinois. Secondly, in its North, by its border with Michigan, Wisconsin has high unemployment, helping Trump win these counties just as he won the high-unemployment counties of Michigan and Ohio. Thirdly, the core Huckabee counties, all of which will probably go for Cruz, do not seem to be anywhere near enough for Cruz to eke out a victory. Lastly, Wisconsin has an open primary, which favors Trump over Cruz. Combine all these factors, as well as the fact Trump won two out of three Iowa counties bordering Wisconsin in a closed caucus, and you have a clear Trump victory in Wisconsin. Unlike with Kasich, there is no #StopTrump non-Bernie-voter effect that is likely to flame up here. So my prediction for the Wisconsin primary is simple: Trump wins.

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