1. Why Trump will almost certainly win the Republican nomination:
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739/((1237*2)-944)=48.3%
465/((1237*2)-944)=30.39%
143/((1237*2)-944)=9.346%

And that’s with Ben Carson, Little Marco and Jeb Bush getting delegates! Imagine what the race would look like if they dropped out at Iowa!

(1237-739)/944=52.75%
(1237-465)/944=81.78%
(1237-143)/944=115.89%

Basic math, folks. Winners aren’t losers. Surely Trump can increase his margin of victory in the delegate count by a mere 4.5 percentage points, especially given the drop-outs of Jeb!, Carson and Rubio.

2. Reagan v. Bush, 1976

This is the only recent primary map from either party I know of to have any predictive power for future general elections. Only Washington, California, Mississippi, Virginia (but this is a swing state, having been won by Dubya in 2000 and 2004), Alaska, West Virginia, Kansas, North Dakota, Nevada (but this is a swing state as well, having been Mexicanized during the housing boom), New Mexico and Kentucky had results that differed between the 1976 GOP primary and the 2012 general election. The first known appearance of Sailer’s marriage gap? Thirty-nine out of fifty states ain’t bad for a trend that would only begin to appear three Presidential election cycles later and continues to this day.

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