For the eventual Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump:
Utah: 56% -Expect big drops from Rmoney’s high.
Wyoming: 55% -Similar to Utah.
Oklahoma: 67% -Primary results are totally worthless here. Both Trump and Clinton are quite popular in Oklahoma.
Idaho: 57% -See Wyoming.
West Virginia: 67% -This is a state Trump is really popular in; expect him to do better than Romney. Clinton’s also a known enemy of coal.
Arkansas: 55% -Yes, this is Bill Clinton’s home state, but the slide in 2012 suggests a poor showing for Her here.
Alabama: 65% -Expect depression of the Black vote.
Kentucky: 65% -Definitely trending red.
Nebraska: 55% -Trump is not a corn state candidate; Clinton is closer to that.
Kansas: 55% -See Nebraska.
Tennessee: 60% -Trending red, but Clinton is popular there. Has long-fixed regional partisan loyalties.
North Dakota: 54% -See Nebraska.
South Dakota: 54% -See Nebraska.
Louisiana: 55% -Clinton’s popular there, but so is Trump.
Texas: 54% -Expect the Mexicans to come out and vote in earnest.
Montana: 53% -Not much reason for Clinton to do better there than Obama, some reason to expect Trump to do worse there than Romney.
Mississippi: 60% -Trump’s really popular there. Expect depression of Black vote.
Alaska: 54% -Trump’s popular there.
South Carolina: 57% -Trump’s popular there, and Black vote will be depressed.
Indiana: 57% -Why wouldn’t Trump win a lot there?
Missouri: 54% -Trump and Clinton are both popular there.
Arizona: 52% -Expect lots of border hawks and Mexicans to cancel out each others’ votes.
Georgia: 54% -Expect Black turnout to be lower.
North Carolina: 50% -Close to tossup.
Florida: 51% -Trump’s really popular there. Hispanic vote will not cancel this out.
Virginia: 47% -Felon vote will keep this down.
Ohio: 50% -Had more primary votes for Trump than Clinton, but a lot of Berniebros voted for Kasich. Ohio and, to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania, strongly depend on Trump’s VP pick. If it’s Kasich, easy victory. But if not, possible Trump election loss.
Pennsylvania: 51% -Who wants their manufacturing jobs back? Also an Eastern state, where Trump does well.
New Hampshire: 51% -Primary vote strongly suggests an even higher number, but the place is being filled with Massachusetts and Vermont liberals, which is making the state trend slightly blue.
Iowa: 48% -Tossup, but probable Clinton triumph.
Colorado: 47% -Perfect storm of urban and Mexican vote will keep this down, as well as Cruz voter apathy.
Wisconsin: 45% -Trump performed poorly there, but he has appeal in the places where Dems tend to win.
Nevada: 44% -Mexicans.
Minnesota: 43% -Cucks, good economy.
Michigan: 46% -Trump may or may not perform here better than Romney, even though this was Romney’s home state. Michigan is prime Clinton territory, but Sanders would perform better there.
New Mexico: 41% -Mexicans, but also expect some boost in White turnout, as well.
Oregon: 44% -This is Sanders territory, not Clinton.
Washington: 41% -More urbanization, but not Clinton territory.
New York 33% -Based on primary results, Trump v. Clinton.
Maine: 40% -Trending blue.
Connecticut: 42% -Expect one or two extra percentage points from Trump voters.
Illinois: 42% -Trump’s popular there, but so is Clinton. Expect smaller rural bias in Trump’s performance than in Romney’s.
New Jersey: 43% -Christie endorsement.
Delaware: 43% -Trump’s an urban candidate.
Massachusetts: 40% -Trump’s really popular there.
Rhode Island: 38% -Trump’s really popular there.
California: 40% -Trump may be popular in the Republican parts, but the Mexicans will prevent a Trump victory.
Maryland: 38% -Trump’s popular there, and Black turnout will be lower.
Vermont: 31% -Based on primary results, Republican v. Democrat, but also the same as Romney’s performance. The trend is for this to be lower, the Trump v. Clinton results suggest it to be a little higher. It’s probably a wash.
Hawaii: 40% -Based on caucus results, Trump v. Clinton.