My reason for worry about North Carolina is simple:

1. It went for Obama in 2008 by a .33% margin.

2. Romney only won it by a 2.04% margin.

3. This is the most concerning: the number of Democratic primary votes in 2016 was over 99% of that of Republican primary votes. Primary turnout was high, being more than 50% of the 2012 general election vote on each side.

The fifth column here is Cruz-and-Sanders-voting Asheville, Buncombe county, growing at the relatively speedy rate of 12% per decade, and the even more threatening Charlotte, Mecklenburg county, growing at the even speedier rate of 24% per decade, as well as Raleigh, Wake county, growing at 26% per decade. Both are attracting a massive amount of Democratic voters to the state, making it a swing state in this election year. It is Trump’s soft underbelly.

As for Georgia, it’s safe Republican. Same population, but very different skew in the primary vote -more Republican votes and far fewer Democratic.