How did Hillary get her 10 Point Convention Bounce (twice Trump’s 5)?

Hint: Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans as of convention bounce was 72%. Prior to the convention, it was 66%. It’s now 72%. So it’s held up, and was not hit at all by the Democratic attacks on Trump.

Her favorability rating among Democrats prior to convention bounce was 70%. It’s now 78%. That accounts for 4 points’ worth of the convention bounce.

That’s still not enough to explain Her convention bounce. Ergo, Her favorability rating among non-aligned independents must have truly soared by double digits, as they are a small fraction of the electorate.

So Her convention bounce occurred entirely among Democrats and, even more so, among (presumably partly Bernie-supporting) independents. It was a moment of party unity and whitewashing Her record to the independents. Trump’s favorability rating overall fell by 4 points. Her rose by 6. So the DNC’s attacks on Trump hurt his favorability rating only with Independents and Democrats, not at all with Republicans.

In short, Her convention bounce increased party polarization and did not impact Republicans whatsoever. It had a YUGE effect on genuine independents and a smaller, but still large effect on Democrats.

I also notice the GOP convention’s attacks on Clinton only lowered her favorability by 1 point during the convention (almost all by cutting it among Democrats). The GOP convention did manage to increase Trump’s favorability by 4 points, almost all by increasing it among Republicans.

So both conventions increased party polarization. And Democrat attacks on Trump at the convention were more effective than Republicans’ attacks on Her, but both of these only worked among independents and Democrats.  Republicans seem to be completely insensitive either to Democrat attacks on Trump or to Republican attacks on Her.

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Conclusion: the target to persuade is Democrats. Turnout among the base is also a good idea, but all persuasive energies must be directed towards Dems.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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