The PIVOT is Still Working

On August 29, I wrote:

If he continues this performance of growing his chance of winning by 8 to 10% per two weeks, he should be at 27% on September 11 and 36% on September 25. However, I expect his speed to improve a bit over time, as people get more used to his inclusive message. So I expect Trump to be polling at ~40-45% just before the first debate.

27 points was the number of percentage points’ worth of chance Trump fell in the FiveThirtyEight NowCast between July 31 and August 1. Her persuasion at the convention seemed to be powerful, but only to women and non-Whites.

I am glad to say that Trump has fulfilled his target under budget and ahead of schedule, surpassing the 27% milestone today, not on 9/11.

Screenshot (463) Screenshot (464)

Remember, Romney was somewhere around 2.2% in the NowCast and 17% in the Polls-Only at this point in the campaign.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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