Trump v. Clinton in the Pennsylvania Primary

Compare the 2012 election results.

Trump is surprisingly strong in the Philadelphia suburbs (except Montgomery County) and surprisingly weak in the counties converted to the Republican Party by John McCain. He even got more primary votes than Clinton in Chester County, which was Kasich’s best county in the GOP Pennsylvania primary and voted for Obama in 2008, and Centre County, which appears to be a university county that voted for Obama in 2012. In fact, this looks more like the 2004 general election map than the 2012 general election map. An artifact of closed primaries and people forgetting to change party registration? Clinton, for some reason, is surprisingly popular in Western Pennsylvania, which leads Her to lead Trump in two sparsely-populated counties there that were flipped Republican by McCain. This can’t be an artifact of Trump being unpopular in Western Pennsylvania, as he’s quite popular there outside of Pittsburgh, and got an even higher vote share in the GOP primary in Western Pennsylvania (outside of Pittsburgh) than in the rest of the state.

Clinton got more votes than Trump overall (Trump got 49.13% of the two-candidate vote), meaning eight counties (two in northern PA, three in Eastern, and three in Western) can outvote the other sixty PA counties. Impressive.

Data here.

Most of the data was gathered from the NYT map.

Clinton’s percentage of the combined Trump+Clinton primary vote is highly positively correlated with her number of votes (R2=.7), but this does not apply for Trump (the correlation is negative and the R2 is only .2454).

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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