Trump v. Clinton in the Ohio Primary

Compare the 2012 election results.

Unlike with Pennsylvania, nothing too surprising here, except, again, the popularity of Hillary Clinton in the industrial regions of eastern Ohio (especially Mahoning County), as with western Pennsylvania. Monroe County, the only county other than Athens to vote for Kasich’s opponent in 2014, stands out as being mildly With Her. It voted for Romney in 2012, the first time it went for the Republican presidential nominee since Nixon’s 1972 landslide, and it may well vote for Trump in the general. It’s clear that many Democrats in Monroe County are unsatisfied with their choice of candidates, as 6% of Democratic presidential primary voters there voted for unknown bullshit candidate De La Fuente, a higher number than anywhere else in Ohio. The only county that came close is neighboring Noble County. Both counties are quite dependent on fossil fuel extraction these days. De La Fuente had his worst performance in the Ohio Democratic presidential primary in Franklin County, home to the state capital of Columbus.

Trump got more votes in the Ohio presidential primary than Clinton; 51.7% of the two-candidate vote.

The correlation between Clinton vote share (relative to Trump) and Clinton votes among the counties is (R2=.5792), less than in Pennsylvania, and the correlation between Trump vote share (relative to Clinton) and Trump votes among the counties is negative, but is (R2=.3202), greater than in Pennsylvania.

Cincinnati and Dayton have switched their partisanship since the Bush era. Other than that, as well as clear Trump overperformance in northeastern and eastern Ohio, not much difference with the Bush victories here.

Just as an aside, over 10% of Hamilton County Republican presidential primary voters cast their vote for Marco Rubio. Why? He did not get so much as 5% in any other county in the Ohio GOP presidential primary; I’ve checked.

Data here.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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