Shots:

So I expect Trump to be polling at ~40-45% just before the first debate.

Chasers:

I was off 1.2 points’ worth of the national popular vote (2.1 points’ worth of chance on the NowCast) on the first and exactly right on the second (this was exactly the case the day before the first debate, which I think counts under “just before”). I was also exactly right on the third. Here are the FiveThirtyEight models as of time of writing (minutes before the start of the debate):
Polls-only:
screenshot-492
Now-cast:
screenshot-493

screenshot-494

Shot:

4. Cruz’s speech: F- Judas! Judas! Judas! [shakes pieces of silver]. Endorsed Trump, but not explicitly. Coward. Made it all about himself, which is what was terrible. Totally inconsistent and incoherent message. Reminds me of 1892 Dem platform: ready to be hijacked.

Chaser:

Advertisements