Compare the 2012 election results in what was, in that election, the closest state in the country.

No real surprises here, and not too much difference from Mitt v. O. Those nominal Democrats in the Florida panhandle whose ancestors voted for Al Smith back in 1928 really need to change their voter registration; the bullshit candidate Democratic presidential primary vote there stretches into the double digits; reaching 20% in Holmes County, FL. This, folks, is why fully open primaries are more useful at judging people’s actual voter preferences than closed ones: people register as members of a party that leaves them. Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are the minimum number of reachable states that were needed for Mitt Romney to win the presidency. Florida and Ohio are absolutely necessary for any Republican presidential candidate to win, especially since the Bush era. Florida was famously the key to W’s victory. All the presidential primaries in these states have some element of closure, primaries being fully closed in Florida and Pennsylvania, and semi-closed in Ohio. Closed primaries do have one advantage: we can clearly see disgruntled partisan voters via the bullshit candidate vote.

Trump got slightly fewer votes in the Florida presidential primary than Clinton; 49.5% of the two-candidate vote. That’s closer than O’s victory over Mitt, even with the disenfranchisement of the Al Smith-voter-descended panhandle DINOs.

The correlation between Clinton vote share (relative to Trump) and Clinton votes among the counties is (R2=.216), far less than in Pennsylvania or even Ohio, and the correlation between Trump vote share (relative to Clinton) and Trump votes among the counties is slightly negative, and is (R2=.0212), much smaller than in Pennsylvania or Ohio. I presume this is due to the rural Black population, which does not exist in the northern states.

I’ve been saying since for months Trump will win Florida, on the basis that Florida (and Palm Beach County) has had a Republican trend since 2000.

Data here.