Trump v. Clinton in the Ohio Primary

Compare the 2012 election results.

Unlike with Pennsylvania, nothing too surprising here, except, again, the popularity of Hillary Clinton in the industrial regions of eastern Ohio (especially Mahoning County), as with western Pennsylvania. Monroe County, the only county other than Athens to vote for Kasich’s opponent in 2014, stands out as being mildly With Her. It voted for Romney in 2012, the first time it went for the Republican presidential nominee since Nixon’s 1972 landslide, and it may well vote for Trump in the general. It’s clear that many Democrats in Monroe County are unsatisfied with their choice of candidates, as 6% of Democratic presidential primary voters there voted for unknown bullshit candidate De La Fuente, a higher number than anywhere else in Ohio. The only county that came close is neighboring Noble County. Both counties are quite dependent on fossil fuel extraction these days. De La Fuente had his worst performance in the Ohio Democratic presidential primary in Franklin County, home to the state capital of Columbus.

Trump got more votes in the Ohio presidential primary than Clinton; 51.7% of the two-candidate vote.

The correlation between Clinton vote share (relative to Trump) and Clinton votes among the counties is (R2=.5792), less than in Pennsylvania, and the correlation between Trump vote share (relative to Clinton) and Trump votes among the counties is negative, but is (R2=.3202), greater than in Pennsylvania.

Cincinnati and Dayton have switched their partisanship since the Bush era. Other than that, as well as clear Trump overperformance in northeastern and eastern Ohio, not much difference with the Bush victories here.

Just as an aside, over 10% of Hamilton County Republican presidential primary voters cast their vote for Marco Rubio. Why? He did not get so much as 5% in any other county in the Ohio GOP presidential primary; I’ve checked.

Data here.

Trump v. Clinton in the Pennsylvania Primary

Compare the 2012 election results.

Trump is surprisingly strong in the Philadelphia suburbs (except Montgomery County) and surprisingly weak in the counties converted to the Republican Party by John McCain. He even got more primary votes than Clinton in Chester County, which was Kasich’s best county in the GOP Pennsylvania primary and voted for Obama in 2008, and Centre County, which appears to be a university county that voted for Obama in 2012. In fact, this looks more like the 2004 general election map than the 2012 general election map. An artifact of closed primaries and people forgetting to change party registration? Clinton, for some reason, is surprisingly popular in Western Pennsylvania, which leads Her to lead Trump in two sparsely-populated counties there that were flipped Republican by McCain. This can’t be an artifact of Trump being unpopular in Western Pennsylvania, as he’s quite popular there outside of Pittsburgh, and got an even higher vote share in the GOP primary in Western Pennsylvania (outside of Pittsburgh) than in the rest of the state.

Clinton got more votes than Trump overall (Trump got 49.13% of the two-candidate vote), meaning eight counties (two in northern PA, three in Eastern, and three in Western) can outvote the other sixty PA counties. Impressive.

Data here.

Most of the data was gathered from the NYT map.

Clinton’s percentage of the combined Trump+Clinton primary vote is highly positively correlated with her number of votes (R2=.7), but this does not apply for Trump (the correlation is negative and the R2 is only .2454).

On Lyin’ Ted’s Endorsement

What I said on July 23:

4. Cruz’s speech: F- Judas! Judas! Judas! [shakes pieces of silver]. Endorsed Trump, but not explicitly. Coward. Made it all about himself, which is what was terrible. Totally inconsistent and incoherent message. Reminds me of 1892 Dem platform: ready to be hijacked.

I did not predict an explicit endorsement, but his convention speech was clearly an implicit one.

Friday Assorted Links

1. Stand With Cruz: Vote Trump

2. Republican ballots outpace Democratic ballots in Florida by 3 points -the Dems had a 3 point advantage at this point in 2012

3. “The trouble is not that young people are insufficiently familiar with the neoconservative horror show of their own childhoods. The trouble is that the candidate they are meant to support does not appear to find that show particularly horrifying.

4. Who’s afraid of Russia Today?

5. FBI drops more email-related material on Friday evening

6. Jeet Heer proven right

7. Adam H. Johnson always has the hottest takes

8. New York Times biased on importing new Democratic voters; who knew?

Thursday Assorted Links

1. Mike Pence on Libya

2. I endorse Mike Lee for Utah Senate as a firm conservative voice to defend our liberties and roll back government to its proper limits

3. Most Hillbots are genuinely delusional. I mean, read these things.

4. At least one progressive understands Her lack of policy substance

5. Most Americans now support candidates releasing their medical information

6. Young people less likely to follow politics

7. Will Cruz endorse Trump?

8. Obama’s approval rating is, unlike the case with most presidents, a consistent 20 points higher than satisfaction with the state of the nation. This gap appears only among members of the president’s party.

Reminder: Republican-supported Immigration Reform ALWAYS Helps the Dems

Simpson (GOP)-Mazzoli (Dem) was a bipartisan immigration compromise (including amnesty for those residing in the county for over four years) signed into law by Ronald Reagan.

Before Simpson-Mazzoli:
After Simpson-Mazzoli:
Any questions?

The funny part:
“But Sergio Bendixen said that Hispanics tend to be conservative on social issues, and that could offer an opening for Republicans.”

Washington Post, 1988

Why didn’t the PUMAs Come Back?

In 1988, the majority of voters in Jackson County, Arkansas, went for loser Michael Dukakis. In 2004, 56.52% of the voters of Jackson County, Arkansas, went for loser John Kerry. In 2008, Jackson County, Arkansas had 2145 primary votes for Hillary Clinton, 353 primary votes for Barack Obama, and 895 primary votes for all Republicans. In 2008, 39.54% of its voters went for Barack Obama, followed by 39.18% in 2012.

In 2016, Jackson County, Arkansas had 702 primary votes for Hillary Clinton and 711 for Donald J. Trump. 927 voters voted for either Sanders or Clinton, while 1581 voters cast their ballots for the five Republican candidates then in the race.

I predict Jackson County, Arkansas, will not go for its former First Lady in the general election.

So I wonder -and this story has been so underreported over the past year or so- why didn’t the PUMAs come back? Why, enraged by Clinton’s loss eight years ago, did most of them, at least, in counties like Jackson, Arkansas, abandon Hillary Clinton, and embrace the GOP?

BTW, we know this is purely an example of a seemingly permanent rejection of a political party based on nothing more than spite that Clinton didn’t win because there was no such PUMA phenomenon in bordering Missouri:
2004-2008 swing:

2008-2012 swing:

In 2012, though, Missouri seems to have had an abnormally large partisan swing to Mitt Romney -but, then again, so did northern Arkansas, and this swing is no greater than, say, North Dakota’s.

So I predict every single county of Vermont will swing to Trump this year.

Tuesday Assorted Links

1. Clinton, but not Trump, agrees to meet Crooked Poroshenko. Crooked is as crooked does!

2. Obama’s UN speech. So filled with blatant lies…

3. Four ways to make polls say what you want

4. “Paul Combetta, sought help from users

5. CNN now just fabricates stories. Then again, I did lose all trust in the MSM during that “second amendment people” media lie.

6. Need-based grants>>>>>>student loans in improving academic performance

7. Why would anyone think Her isn’t truthful?

8. Paul+Lee+Murphy+Franken. Can’t be bad.

The Fire Continues Rising

UPDATE: 24 Hours after this post was written, Trump proceeded to surpass all of Mitt’s records!


Yup; when Mitt was pulling a solid 2.0% in FiveThirtyEight’s NowCast six days before the big debate, Donald J. Trump is pulling 42.8%. Mitt’s highest Now-Cast ever was 43.9% -and Trump’s beating every single day but that one in Mitt’s loser campaign. The polls-only is 40.6%-the first time it went above 40% since the conventions and also just a notch below Romney’s best polls-only performance during his loser campaign (41.0%):

The polls-plus is 41.7% -Trump’s highest ever.

Now all Trump needs to do is do well in the first debate, win New Hampshire, and run as the presumptive president of the United States of America.