wi_trumpher

Compare the 2012 general election results

Wisconsin, like Utah (and, in less obviously representative cases, Maine, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Colorado, Wyoming and Idaho), was a state which rejected both the ultimate presidential nominees of the two parties, going for the more progressive candidate on the Democratic side and more conservative (except in Minnesota’s case) candidate on the Republican side. However, Wisconsin was the only state which did so in a fully open primary. Thus, its voting patterns may not reflect the general election outcome, and certainly look weird.

The Cruzlims in the most populous Romney-voting counties of the state, who generally went for McCain against religious populist Huckabee in 2008 and for Romney against religious populist Santorum in 2012, true to form, went for the religious demagogue endorsed by Jeb! and clearly the one most preferred by the party elites, despite his far right-wing and anti-establishment nature. However, unlike in 2008 and 2012, the Acela corridor didn’t go their way. If this is one state that could be kept blue solely by the aid of Cruzlim #NeverTrumpers, and had Republican voters who actually resembled what National Review thought the GOP looked like, this is it.

The big cities of Milwaukee and Madison, true to form, stay solidly in the Democratic column.

The North of Wisconsin also contained numerous Sandersistas and Trump supporters and relatively few supporters of Clinton and Cruz. Thus, Trump strongly overperforms there in the primary relative to Clinton relative to his likely general election performance.

I suspect the driftless area of southwestern Wisconsin, notorious for having a majority of its Whites vote for Obama, will, like Iowa, swing mostly, though not entirely, to the Republican candidate this year.

Overall, expect a Trump overperformance in northern Wisconsin and a Trump underperformance in the rich Cruzlim parts of Wisconsin.

This, like Pennsylvania, is a swing state worth watching. It almost went for Bush in 2004 as a result of his strong performance in the rich Southeast of Wisconsin. Cruz got more votes in Wisconsin than Clinton (though not Sanders) in the primary, and Trump got 47.17% of the combined Clinton+Trump vote -not impressive, but better than Mitt’s performance in the 2012 general election and, given the strong Cruz performance there, nothing to sneeze at, either. Certainly, Wisconsin is a competitive state for Trump, though it depends on what extent Cruz supporters stay with Trump and Sanders supporters stay with Clinton.

Data here.

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