Red=modeled Trump advantage over Mitt


1896 election

1916 election

BTW, reading a contemporary description of how Wilson won in 1916 (one hundred years ago) sounds like a dispatch out of an alternate universe -Wilson won pretty much in exactly the states Bush won in 2000, and was close in precisely the states Bush was close in 2000 (New Mexico, Minnesota, New Hampshire), but Wilson was viewed as more progressive and more attractive to women voters than his Wall Street-backed Republican opponent, and was championed for his economic liberalism and opposition to war -precisely the opposite of the policies Bush ran on in his successful 2004 re-election campaign. People also predicted the 1916 election was a permanent re-alignment -and it turned out to be a one-off followed by Kansas becoming a permanent “lean R” state. Bush 2000, meanwhile, did turn out to be a permanent realignment, as we can see today.

So it does seem that Hillary Clinton is bringing back the old Democratic Party, while Trump is bringing back the old Republican Party. Strange times!