Black Turnout in North Carolina Down Substantially from 2012


http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/10/10-23-16-analysis-of-ncs-early-absentee.html

And yet, overall turnout is pretty much the same as in 2012. As Blacks vote, to a first approximation, 100% Dem, this is bad news for every southern Democrat, and may mean Trump wins Florida and North Carolina despite a very Dem-trending White vote.

Relative to 2012, Democrats are doing poorly at absentee in-person voting, while the GOP is doing poorly at vote-by-mail.

After double-checking, I’ve confirmed Black turnout really is down in NC from 2012 by a substantial margin.

By looking at the 2012 North Carolina voter turnout stats, I’ve concluded 75.4% of registered unaffiliateds voted for Mitt Romney, based on the assumption no registered Democrat voted for Mitt Romney, but every registered Republican did.

Assuming Trump is winning only 68% of unaffiliateds, Trump is doing two points better than Mitt now when looking at total ballots.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

One thought on “Black Turnout in North Carolina Down Substantially from 2012”

Read the Comment Policy Before Commenting.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s