And yet, overall turnout is pretty much the same as in 2012. As Blacks vote, to a first approximation, 100% Dem, this is bad news for every southern Democrat, and may mean Trump wins Florida and North Carolina despite a very Dem-trending White vote.

Relative to 2012, Democrats are doing poorly at absentee in-person voting, while the GOP is doing poorly at vote-by-mail.

After double-checking, I’ve confirmed Black turnout really is down in NC from 2012 by a substantial margin.

By looking at the 2012 North Carolina voter turnout stats, I’ve concluded 75.4% of registered unaffiliateds voted for Mitt Romney, based on the assumption no registered Democrat voted for Mitt Romney, but every registered Republican did.

Assuming Trump is winning only 68% of unaffiliateds, Trump is doing two points better than Mitt now when looking at total ballots.