See the previous post for background:

The White vote does seem to be more Democratic-leaning than in 2012, but the very low Black turnout is making up for it. And Trump’s position relative to Mitt Romney has actually improved in recent days.

Remember, unaffiliateds voted 75.4% Mitt Romney in 2012. The NYT’s analysis appears to be BS. It’s impossible for unaffiliateds to go from 75.4% for Romney to 41% for Donald Trump. If Black turnout remains this low, Trump is headed for a 4-point win in NC.