How badly is Trump doing in Nevada? To hear Jon Ralston tell it, losing by 5-6 points. The actual partisan turnout gap for the first week of early voting (both in-person and by mail) is 7.35 points. How bad is this for Trump? The recent Marist poll has Trump and Clinton tied in Nevada, assuming a 6-point gap in partisan turnout. So Nate Silver (Clinton leading by 1.7 points) seems to be almost exactly correct for this great state in the early vote so far.

The recent Remington poll assumes a four-point partisan turnout gap and has a three-point Trump lead, so it’s also very much consistent with a 1-point Clinton lead in the early vote so far.

The numbers will look better for Trump and the GOP in the coming days.