Winners:
Steve Sailer
Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Halloween Masks
The Republican establishments of Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan
Republican primary voters
Sheldon Adelson
Ted Cruz
America
Townies
Looking at the early vote as an indicator of the final outcome
Scott Adams
Nigel Farage
Straight-ticket voting (every single Senate race had the presidential and Senate winners be of the same party, something which has literally never happened in any U.S. presidential election since the ratification of the 17th Amendment)
Every single EC-popular vote split in US history ending up in favor of one party
Losers:
Nate Cohn
Hillary Clinton
Tim Kaine
All the Bushes, except George P.
Sam Wang
Voxxers
HuffPo
Ross Douthat
Sean Trende
Those idiots who voted for Clinton in the primary. Still can’t understand them at all.
The Republican establishment of Nevada
The absolute scum in the press (including Megyn whoever)
The swamp
Manhattan
Most big Jewish donors
Most academic hacks (Scott Sumner and Scott the psychiatrist included, Caplan not included)
Carl Diggler
Herded pollsters
#NeverTrump. Tip to John Kasich: Trump and Romney won the only other county you lost in 2014. Three of the five GOP Senate candidates who denounced Trump hurt GOP turnout so much, they shot both themselves and Trump right in the face in their respective states. The ones who did neither were the 2008 GOP nominee and the Senate’s most conservative member, Mr. Lee. Both were in solid red states.
Partial credit:
@baseballcrank (for History is Not on the Democrats’ side in 2016; points off for being #NeverTrump)
@NateSilver538 (for correctly keeping this in mind as a possible scenario; points off for bad calls in states)
@maristpoll (for correctly predicting the popular vote; points off for failing to predict electorate in Nevada)
@mitchellvii (for correctly calling the race; points off for bad popular vote call)
Looking at the primary vote as an indicator of the final outcome
The median voter theorem (cf., IA v. NH primary and general election results this year)
Isn’t Carl Diggler some comedian’s persona, like Ali G?
Yes. He (@ByYourLogic) is still the more digestible version of the writer(s) and was badly off on his predictions, even worse than I was.
He did beat Nate Silver in quite a few places during the primaries, though.