Steve Sailer

Demographic models

Donald Trump

Mike Pence

Halloween Masks

The Republican establishments of Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan

Republican primary voters

Sheldon Adelson

Ted Cruz



Looking at the early vote as an indicator of the final outcome

Scott Adams

Nigel Farage

Straight-ticket voting (every single Senate race had the presidential and Senate winners be of the same party, something which has literally never happened in any U.S. presidential election since the ratification of the 17th Amendment)

Every single EC-popular vote split in US history ending up in favor of one party


Nate Cohn

Hillary Clinton

Tim Kaine

All the Bushes, except George P.

Sam Wang



Ross Douthat

Sean Trende

Those idiots who voted for Clinton in the primary. Still can’t understand them at all.

The Republican establishment of Nevada

The absolute scum in the press (including Megyn whoever)

The swamp


Most big Jewish donors

Most academic hacks (Scott Sumner and Scott the psychiatrist included, Caplan not included)

Carl Diggler

Herded pollsters

#NeverTrump. Tip to John Kasich: Trump and Romney won the only other county you lost in 2014. Three of the five GOP Senate candidates who denounced Trump hurt GOP turnout so much, they shot both themselves and Trump right in the face in their respective states. The ones who did neither were the 2008 GOP nominee and the Senate’s most conservative member, Mr. Lee. Both were in solid red states.

Partial credit:

@baseballcrank (for History is Not on the Democrats’ side in 2016; points off for being #NeverTrump)

@NateSilver538 (for correctly keeping this in mind as a possible scenario; points off for bad calls in states)

@maristpoll (for correctly predicting the popular vote; points off for failing to predict electorate in Nevada)

@mitchellvii (for correctly calling the race; points off for bad popular vote call)

@Enopoletus (see here)

Looking at the primary vote as an indicator of the final outcome

The median voter theorem (cf., IA v. NH primary and general election results this year)