1. The MSM will continue to lose all credibility. It will be less influential at the end of the Trump administration than at the beginning among the general public. NYTimes and WaPo will increasingly take on the role of AlterNet and Salon.

2. Whether Trump will be re-elected or not will depend on the state of the economy. Greater than .5 percentage point unemployment decline from a year ago and less than 1000 combat deaths outside the U.S. as of November 2020=automatic re-election. Greater than .5 percentage point unemployment increase from a year ago or greater than 10000 combat deaths outside the U.S. as of November 2020=automatic defeat.

3. The Democrats will increase their number of seats in the House in 2018, but will be unable to take it back.

4. Relations with Russia will improve in a Trump administration

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