Above: the states that swung more toward Trump than did the national popular vote.

The Democrats since Gore have really been playing the Herbert Hoover New South strategy to great effect (of course, much of the Electoral College effect has not been visible outside Virginia and North Carolina). However, the Old South has trended heavily Republican since then, with HRC losing Elliot County, KY, Colleton County, SC, Quitman County, GA, and Westmoreland County, VA -all of which went for Obama in 2012.

BTW, Florida goes blue, and that’s a 269-269 Electoral College situation.