Last year’s predictions (with updates as needed) here.

1. More posts will be posted on this blog this year than last year: 70%.

2. U.S. real GDP will expand slower this year than in 2014 (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4): 90%.

3. U.S. real GDP will expand slower this year than in 2016 (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4): 60%.

4. The Syrian government will hold more territory on December 31, 2017 than today: 70%.

5. The Kurds in Syria will hold more territory on December 31, 2017 than today: 80%.

6. https://www.torproject.org/download/ will remain accessible on the open Internet in Russia on December 31, 2017: 80%.

7. The unemployment rate in the U.S. will be higher in December, 2017, than in January, 2016: 40%.

8. The Black-White ACT score gap will not narrow in 2017: 50%.

9. The Houthis will hold more territory on December 31, 2017, than today: 30%.

10. The Iraqi government will hold more territory on December 31, 2017, than today: 90%.

11. The Yemeni government will hold more territory in Yemen on December 31, 2017 than today: 60%.

12. The Syrian army will hold Jisr al-Shughur on December 31, 2017: 40%.

13. Al-Mukalla will be held by Yemeni government forces on December 31, 2017: 80%.

14. The Marginal Counterrevolution shall make at least 365 posts during its second year: 90%.

15. The territory held by the Syrian government in and around Aleppo City will expand this year: 90%.

16. This blog will gain more pageviews this year than it did last year: 60%.

17. China will remain formally Communist on December 31, 2017: 90%.

18. Kim Jong-Un will still remain king of North Korea on December 31, 2017: 80%.

19. Robert Mugabe will still be alive on December 31, 2017: 60%.

20. Putin’s approval rating will remain above 40% in every reputable poll in December, 2017: 90%.

21. This blog will achieve a day with at least 400 pageviews: 50%.

22. Comments on this blog this year will be more than last year: 60%.

23. Mosul will be fully under control of the non-Islamic State forces on December 31, 2017: 90%.

24. Palmyra will be fully under the control of the Syrian government on December 31, 2017: 60%.

25. Raqqa will remain under the control of the Islamic State on December 31, 2017: 40%.

26. No Gaza War this year: 60%.

27. No intifada in the West Bank this year: 60%.

28. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more posts published than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2017: 90%.

29. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more pageviews than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2017: 90%.

30. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more pageviews per post than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2017: 30%.

31. The Islamic State will continue to not hold Syrtis on December 31, 2017: 80%.

32. Poroshenko will remain President of Ukraine on December 31, 2017: 90%.

33. The dollar price of oil will be higher on December 31, 2017 than today: 60%.

34. The price of oil will never be higher than $70 per barrel in 2017: 70%.

35. The price of oil will be lower than $60 per barrel on December 31, 2017: 70%.

36. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia: 100%.

37. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Japan: 80%.

38. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Vietnam: 90%.

39. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Indonesia: 100%.

40. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Germany: 60%.

41. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in the Philippines: 70%.

42. China will record growth of 8% or higher in 2017: 10%.

43. China will record growth of 4% or higher in 2017: 90%.

44. China will record growth of 5% or higher in 2017: 80%.

45. China will record growth of 6% or higher in 2017: 50%.

46. China will record growth of 7% or higher in 2017: 40%.

47. Ethiopia will record per capita growth of 7% or higher in 2017: 50%.

48. Ethiopia will record per capita growth of 3% or higher in 2017: 90%.

49. Trump’s approval rating will be above 30% in the latest polls of 2017: 90%.

50. Trump’s approval rating will be above 50% at some point in 2017: 80%.

51. Russia’s economy will record Q4-over-Q4 real GDP growth in 2017: 70%.

52. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 7%: 80%.

53. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 4%: 10%.

54. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 6%: 50%.

55. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 5%: 30%.

56. Not one country will go off the Euro: 100%.

57. Mexico’s per capita GDP growth will be under 3% in 2017: 70%.

58. Mexico’s per capita GDP growth will be under 4% in 2017: 90%.

59. There will be at least two IS-inspired terrorist attacks in the United States that will each kill at least five people: 60%.

60. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be above 0% in 2017: 90%.

61. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be below 5% in 2017: 60%.

62. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be above 1% in 2017: 60%.

63. Africa will experience the start of one new civil war this year: 60%

64. U.S. nominal GDP growth will be under 7% (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4) in 2017: 100%.

65. U.S. nominal GDP growth will be under 4% in 2017 (year-to year; not Q4 over Q4): 60%.

66. Trump’s approval rating will be below 70% at every point in 2017: 90%.

67. Russian life expectancy will increase in 2017: 70%.

68. The Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index will be lower on December 31 of this year than today: 80%.

69. The U.S. will enter a recession in 2017: 40%. Normally, a yield curve like this would not indicate a recession for next year, but we do not live in normal times.

70. Iran will not get a nuclear weapon: 100%.

71. Russia will not invade any of the following: Finland, Alaska, the Baltic States, Poland: 100%.

72. Legislation on constructing Trump’s border wall will be signed by Trump in 2017: 90%

73. Netanyahu will still be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2017: 80%.

74. Afewerki will still be dictator of Eritrea at the end of 2017: 90%.

75. Tunisia will still be a democracy at the end of 2017: 90%.

76. Libya will not be reunified in 2017: 60%.

77. The Tobruk government will hold 100% of Benghazi on December 31, 2017: 80%.

78. Somaliland will remain unrecognized by the U.S. government: 70%

79. Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating will not rise above 60% in 2017: 80%

80. Le Pen will win the French elections in 2017: 40%.

81. Yemen will not be unified on December 31, 2017: 100%.

82. Syria will not be unified on December 31, 2017: 100%.

83. Keith Ellison will win the DNC Chair election: 60%

84. Turkish Cyprus will reunify with southern Cyprus: 0%.

85. Russia will hold on to Krim: 100%.

86. Russian-backed forces will hold on to both the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk: 80%.

87. Not a single act of terror will be prevented in 2017 where formerly and presently secret NSA mass surveillance programs made a crucial difference: 80%.

88. I will have at least 1000 Twitter followers by the end of 2017: 60%.

89. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least one more country in 2017: 100%.

90. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least five more countries in 2017: 40%.

91. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least ten more countries in 2017: 10%.

92. Vehicle miles driven per capita in the U.S. will be higher in 2017 than in 2016: 70%.

93. The Islamic State will carry out at least five terrorist attacks carried out by men within Turkey that will kill more than five people in 2017: 80%.

94. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Israel except against the Arabs that will kill more than five people in 2017: 90%.

95. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Saudi Arabia except against the Shiites that will kill more than five people in 2017: 80%.

96. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Qatar except against the non-Muslims that will kill more than five people in 2017: 90%.

97. Chinese GDP per capita (PPP) will be considered by the World Bank to be above that of Thailand in 2017: 90%.

98. A bill cutting personal income taxes will be signed into law by President Trump in 2017: 70%.

99. Neither of my blogs will reach 100,000 pageviews this year: 70%.

100. Neither of my blogs will reach 100,000 pageviews combined this year: 60%.

101. My blogs will reach at least one million pageviews combined this year: 10%.

102. Not one presently Communist country will become known as a formerly Communist country by December 31, 2017: 70%.

103. Rex Tillerson will be confirmed as Secretary of State: 70%

104. I will be banned or shadowbanned by at least one website, Twitter feed, Facebook account, or YouTube channel by the end of this year: 100%.

105. I will be banned or shadowbanned by at least five websites, Twitter feeds, Facebook accounts, or YouTube channels by the end of this year: 90%.

106. AHETPI/CPIAUCSL will be lower in 2017 than in 2016: 70%.

107. A Supreme Court justice will be confirmed in 2017: 90%

108. I will finish at least three books of over 100 pages this year: 60%.

109. I will finish Scott Sumner’s Midas Curse before the end of the year: 90%.

110. Not one person (myself excepted) will, as per the comment policy, post one or more PGP-encrypted comments encrypted with my public key on any of my blogs: 60%.

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