Once, while looking at the New York Times’s primary map, I found that Marco Rubio won the rich inner city voters of Atlanta, Cruz performed best in the middle-income suburbs, and Trump performed best in the White Georgian countryside.
I also examined the New York Times’s list of 2012 and 2016 exit polling results from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. I found that there were basically four types of Republican candidates:
1. National Republicans -These are the candidates most likely to win the White Georgian countryside.
2. Conservative Republicans -These are the candidates most likely to win Iowa. Overtly religious. The marriage gap is strongest with these. Slightly more likely to win women then men. Strongest base is moral majority and values voters concerned about abortion.
3. Establishment Republicans -These are the candidates most likely to win Manhattan Island.
4. There are also Libertarian Republicans, who are most popular among young independent atheist men who admire true conservative ideology, principle, and character. Such candidates are strongly favored by their voters and win no last-day-deciders. Some overlap exists between voters for Libertarian Republicans with with Sanders voters. These candidates are most likely to win the youth.
Ted Cruz combines conservative, libertarian (he did best with young people, probably has a very strong marriage gap, and is overtly religious), and, in Wisconsin, possibly even establishment aspects. Huckabee and Rick Santorum combined national and conservative aspects. Trump combines national and libertarian aspects. Romney was what one might call an establishment guy, though his vote shares in the general election were similar to that of a conservative republican. Kasich is an establishment Republican through and through. Gingrich was a national Republican. Ron Paul was a libertarian republican.
As a rule, Establishment Republicans fail to connect much with voters.