Notes on the Primary and General Elections in Wisconsin and Michigan

The swing to the Republicans from the primary to the general was, in both the Wisconsin and Michigan cases, clearly better correlated with Trump GOP primary vote share than Trump GOP+Dem primary vote share. Which makes sense, due to the Trump Democrats.

In both the Wisconsin and Michigan cases, the swing to Trump was uncorrelated with the Sanders share of the Democratic primary vote. However, multiple regression analysis reveals that (apparently as a result of counties like Ionia and Isabella in MI swinging to Trump) independent of other primary vote shares, Sanders share of GOP+Dem primary vote was correlated with a swing to Trump.

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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