Why did Trump lose New Hampshire?

Two things are true:

1. This election had an unusually high level of straight-ticket voting.

2. Unlike the 2000 election, in which voting in a party’s primary best predicted general election choice (in new Hampshire, at least), or the 2008 election, in which an average of voting in a party’s primary and voting for the party’s nominee best predicted general election choice (in New Hampshire, at least), in the 2016 election, voting for the party nominee best predicted general election choice (in New Hampshire, at least) and voting in a party’s primary was a much less important indicator of general election preference.

In short, the candidates greatly shaped party constituencies this election cycle. An example:

Author: pithom

An atheist with an interest in the history of the ancient Near East. Author of the Against Jebel al-Lawz Wordpress blog.

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