Predictions for the 2020s

1. China’s growth will be slower than in the 2010s (60%)

2. Russia’s growth will be faster than in the 2010s (70%)

3. Indonesia’s growth will be slower than in the 2010s (70%)

4. India’s growth will be slower than in the 2010s (90%)

5. U.S. forces will withdraw from Syria (70%)

6. Idlib will be fully terrorist-free (95%)

7. The Communist Party will continue to rule in China (70%)

8. Kim Jong-Un will be ruler of North Korea (80%)

9. The Saudi monarchy will remain in power (95%)

10. Trump will lose in 2020 (80%)

11. Democracy will not come to Venezuela (60%)

12. The U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2020 (70%)

13. Japan’s population will fall (95%)

14. There will be no major (unemployment 8% or higher) U.S. recessions in the 2020s (95%)

15. The president’s party will have less than 200 seats in the House in 2023 (80%)

16. Democracy will not come to Cuba (90%)

17. The machine will retain power in Russia (70%)

18. The machine will retain power in Turkey (50%)

19. The machine will lose power in Bangladesh (60%)

20. Africa will grow in population (100%)

21. New Cold War continues (90%)

22. More states will recognize Crimea as part of Russia (80%)

23. The Iran Deal will be restored (70%)

24. The machine will retain power in Iran (90%)

25. There will be no major anti-establishment left elected officials in the United States at the end of the decade (95%)

26. There will be no major anti-establishment left elected officials in the United States at any point in the decade (90%)

27. There will be no FUNDAMENTAL changes in Republican Party ideology (70%)

28. Trump’s approval rating will be above water at the end of the decade (80%)

29. Marijuana will be legalized nationwide in the United States (80%)

30. Religion in the United States will continue to decline (90%)

31. The U.S. Non-Hispanic White population will continue to decline (80%)

32. No resolution of the Palestinian question (95%)

33. No resolution of the Kashmiri question (100%)

34. No Russian military incursion into Ukraine (70%)

35. No major (1 million+ dead) wars in Africa (70%)

36. No major (100,000+ dead) wars in Asia outside the Middle East (Middle East includes Afghanistan and Central Asia) (70%)

37. No public option or Medicare For All in the United States (80%)

38. Pakistan’s per capita GDP grows faster in the 2020s than in the 2010s (70%)

39. No third Iraqi Civil War (70%)

40. No military invasion of Taiwan (95%)

41. Labour recovery in the next election (this means by seats) (80%)

42. At least one major U.S.-based social network will decline to insignificance in the coming decade (60%)

Saturday Assorted Links

1. The Reaganization of Mother Jones

2. Basically my view of Obama from the very beginning (and part of why I preferred HRC 08 to him). Even his release of Manning was only because the dude went trans.

3. Interesting argument on future of medicine and DNA

4. Trump says something actually disgusting

5. Ballsiest move of the week. I’m still amazed they actually managed to do it.

6. Interesting attempt by left-wing U.S. Senators to impose a religious test for public office

7. Wise words on terrorism

8. Wise reminder on arguments from silence

Monday Assorted Links

1. Canada’s booming; the upper Midwest (exception: Minnesota) isn’t. Also, NAFTA caused shipping U.S. manufacturing jobs to Canada.

2. The uberwonk

3. Assad says the truth

4. The West Wing

5. Funniest thing I read today

6. Your daily dose of slave morality (read the comments) A Lockean interpretation of such a doctrine (see Locke’s Second Treatise, Paragraph 18) would be Grade A subversion of the enemies of truth and beauty, but is not necessary due to the sheer pathetic nature of it.

7. Russia might build a naval base in Aden if peace negotiations succeed in Yemen

8. Carter Page and mindless Dem Establishment thoughtworms

9. Axel McKibbin goes full populist. I have my reservations, but this is a potentially defensible stance.

10. Rising education does not equal rising IQ. I am inclined to agree with Scott Alexander and Bryan Caplan on Tulip subsidies.


The first of its kind, and probably not the last. I want the largest sample size for this possible, so send it to every Tom, Dick, and Harry you know. Some of the answers (and you should review them after you’ve submitted the quiz) may surprise you. In fact, the questions are all made to have an element of surprise to them. Quiz should take a maximum of three minutes for most people.
The Quiz!:

Be warned, it’s USA-centric. You can still try your hand at it if you’re from abroad, though.

Monday Assorted Links

1. Tyler Cowen remains as nutty as ever. I don’t think I’m missing out on anything by not reading his blog anymore for the past couple months.

2. Winning tweet; winning man

3. Utah and the opioids

4. Trump in his own words

5. Full list of Trump’s executive orders. Unimpressive.

6. What ever happened to that surging antisemitism (really thorough Tracey piece)?

7. Percentage of Dems proud to be Americans at all-time low

8. The guy who discovered the Internet Research Center exposes the fearmongering poseurs

9. Keynes on population control

10. Sunnis leaving parts of Mosul recaptured from ISIS