This is based off of Anatoly Karlin’s predictions.

1. More posts will be posted on this blog this year than last year: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

2. U.S. real GDP will expand slower this year than in 2014 (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4): 100%.

3. U.S. real GDP will expand slower this year than in 2015 (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4): 60%.

4. The Syrian government will hold more territory on December 31, 2016 than today: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

5. The Kurds in Syria will hold more territory on December 31, 2016 than today: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

6. https://www.torproject.org/download/ will remain accessible on the open Internet in Russia on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

7. The unemployment rate in the U.S. will be higher in December, 2016, than in January, 2016: 20%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

8. The Black-White ACT score gap will not narrow in 2016: 60%.

9. The Houthis will hold more territory on December 31, 2016, than today: 30%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

10. The Iraqi government will hold more territory on December 31, 2016, than today: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

11. The Islamic State will hold more territory in Yemen on December 31, 2016 than today: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

12. The Syrian army will hold Jisr al-Shughur on December 31, 2016: 40%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

13. Al-Mukalla will be held by either Islamic State or al-Qaeda forces on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

14. The Marginal Counterrevolution shall make at least 365 posts by its first anniversary: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

15. I will still be commenting on the Marginal Revolution on December 31, 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

16. This blog will gain more pageviews this year than it did last year: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

17. China will remain formally Communist on December 31, 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

18. Kim Jong-Un will still remain king of North Korea on December 31, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

19. Fidel Castro will still be alive on December 31, 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

20. Putin’s approval rating will remain above 50% in every reputable poll in December, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

21. This blog will achieve a day with at least 400 pageviews: 50%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

22. Comments on this blog this year will be more than last year: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

23. Mosul will be fully under control of the non-Islamic State forces on December 31, 2016: 40%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

24. Palmyra will be fully under the control of the Syrian government on December 31, 2016: 40%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

25. Raqqa will remain under the control of the Islamic State on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

26. No Gaza War this year: 50%.

NO GAZA WAR THIS YEAR

27. No intifada in the West Bank this year: 50%.

NO INTIFADA IN THE WEST BANK THIS YEAR

28. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more posts published than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2016: 90%.

UPDAT: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

29. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more pageviews than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

30. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more pageviews per post than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2016: 80%.

31. The Islamic State will continue to hold Syrtis on December 31, 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

32. Poroshenko will remain President of Ukraine on December 31, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

33. The dollar price of oil will be higher on December 31, 2016 than today: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

34. The price of oil will never be higher than $70 per barrel in 2016: 50%.

UPDATE: PRICE OF OIL WAS NEVER ABOVE $70 PER BARREL IN 2016

35. The price of oil will be lower than $60 per barrel on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

36. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

37. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Japan: 80%.

38. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Vietnam: 90%.

39. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Indonesia: 100%.

40. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Germany: 60%.

41. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in the Philippines: 70%.

42. China will record growth of 8% or higher in 2016: 10%.

43. China will record growth of 4% or higher in 2016: 90%.

44. China will record growth of 5% or higher in 2016: 80%.

45. China will record growth of 6% or higher in 2016: 50%.

46. China will record growth of 7% or higher in 2016: 40%.

47. Ethiopia will record per capita growth of 7% or higher in 2016: 50%.

48. Ethiopia will record per capita growth of 3% or higher in 2016: 90%.

49. Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency: 50%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CLOSER TO THE OUTCOME THAN PREDICTION MARKETS

50. Trump will win the Republican nomination: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

51. Russia’s economy will record Q4-over-Q4 real GDP growth in 2016: 60%.

52. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 7%: 80%.

53. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 4%: 10%.

54. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 6%: 50%.

55. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 5%: 30%.

56. Not one country will go off the Euro: 100%.

57. Mexico’s per capita GDP growth will be under 3% in 2016: 70%.

58. Mexico’s per capita GDP growth will be under 4% in 2016: 90%.

59. There will be at least two IS-inspired terrorist attacks in the United States that will each kill at least five people: 50%.

60. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be above 0% in 2016: 90%.

61. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be below 5% in 2016: 90%.

62. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be above 1% in 2016: 70%.

63. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be below 4% in 2016: 70%.

64. U.S. nominal GDP growth will be under 4% (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4) in 2016: 90%.

65. U.S. nominal GDP growth will be under 3% in 2016 (year-to year; not Q4 over Q4): 50%.

66. U.S. unemployment will be lower than Russian in December 2016: 80%.

67. Russian life expectancy will increase in 2016: 70%.

68. The Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index will be lower on December 31 of this year than today: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

69. The U.S. will enter a recession in 2016: 40%. Normally, a yield curve like this would not indicate a recession for next year, but we do not live in normal times.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

70. Iran will not get a nuclear weapon: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

71. Russia will not invade any of the following: Finland, Alaska, the Baltic States, Poland: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

72. For the first December since the 1990s, the Japanese unemployment rate will be below 3% in December 2016: 100%.

73. Netanyahu will still be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

74. Afewerki will still be dictator of Eritrea at the end of 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

75. Tunisia will still be a democracy at the end of 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

76. Libya will not be reunified in 2016: 90%.

77. The Islamic State will expand in Libya between today and December 31, 2016: 50%.

ISLAMIC STATE DID NOT EXPAND IN LIBYA IN 2016

78. The Islamic State will expand in Afghanistan between today and December 31, 2016: 80%.

79. Violence in Afghanistan will increase in 2016: 80%.

80. Violence in Iraq will decrease in 2016: 60%.

81. Yemen will not be unified on December 31, 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

82. Syria will not be unified on December 31, 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

83. Britain will vote to leave the E.U.: 50%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CLOSER TO THE OUTCOME THAN PREDICTION MARKETS

84. Turkish Cyprus will reunify with southern Cyprus: 10%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

85. Russia will hold on to Krim: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

86. Russian-backed forces will hold on to both the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

87. Not a single act of terror will be prevented in 2016 where formerly and presently secret NSA mass surveillance programs made a crucial difference: 100%.

88. Chinese steel output will be lower in 2016 than in 2015: 80%.

89. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least one more country in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

90. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least five more countries in 2016: 50%.

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE WAS NOT LEGAL IN AT LEAST FIVE MORE COUNTRIES IN 2016

91. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least ten more countries in 2016: 10%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

92. Vehicle miles driven per capita in the U.S. will be higher in 2016 than in 2015: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

93. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Turkey except against the Kurds that will kill more than five people in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

94. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Israel except against the Arabs that will kill more than five people in 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

95. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Saudi Arabia except against the Shiites that will kill more than five people in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

96. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Qatar except against the non-Muslims that will kill more than five people in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

97. Chinese GDP per capita (PPP) will be considered by the World Bank to be above that of Thailand in 2016: 90%.

98. I will be doing a retrospect on this list on a Windows 10 PC: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

99. Neither of my blogs will reach 100,000 pageviews this year: 50%.

100. Neither of my blogs will reach 100,000 pageviews combined this year: 20%.

101. My blogs will reach at least one million pageviews combined this year: 10%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

102. Not one presently Communist country will become known as a formerly Communist country by December 31, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

103. Obamacare will continue to be disapproved of by most Republicans: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

104. I will be banned or shadowbanned by at least one website, Twitter feed, Facebook account, or YouTube channel by the end of this year: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

105. I will be banned or shadowbanned by at least five websites, Twitter feeds, Facebook accounts, or YouTube channels by the end of this year: 20%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

106. AHETPI/CPIAUCSL will be lower in 2016 than in 2015: 50%.

107. My reading list will skew more toward right-wing sources on December 31, 2016 than today: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

108. I will finish at least three books of over 100 pages this year: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

109. I will finish Scott Sumner’s Midas Curse before the end of the month: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

110. Not one person (myself excepted) will, as per the comment policy, post one or more PGP-encrypted comments encrypted with my public key on any of my blogs: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED