This is based off of Anatoly Karlin’s predictions.

1. More posts will be posted on this blog this year than last year: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

2. U.S. real GDP will expand slower this year than in 2014 (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4): 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

3. U.S. real GDP will expand slower this year than in 2015 (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4): 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED (though it turns out real GDP expanded faster in 2015 than 2014, but who cares)

4. The Syrian government will hold more territory on December 31, 2016 than today: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

5. The Kurds in Syria will hold more territory on December 31, 2016 than today: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

6. https://www.torproject.org/download/ will remain accessible on the open Internet in Russia on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

7. The unemployment rate in the U.S. will be higher in December, 2016, than in January, 2016: 20%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

8. The Black-White ACT score gap will not narrow in 2016: 60%.

9. The Houthis will hold more territory on December 31, 2016, than today: 30%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

10. The Iraqi government will hold more territory on December 31, 2016, than today: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

11. The Islamic State will hold more territory in Yemen on December 31, 2016 than today: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

12. The Syrian army will hold Jisr al-Shughur on December 31, 2016: 40%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

13. Al-Mukalla will be held by either Islamic State or al-Qaeda forces on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

14. The Marginal Counterrevolution shall make at least 365 posts by its first anniversary: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

15. I will still be commenting on the Marginal Revolution on December 31, 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

16. This blog will gain more pageviews this year than it did last year: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

17. China will remain formally Communist on December 31, 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

18. Kim Jong-Un will still remain king of North Korea on December 31, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

19. Fidel Castro will still be alive on December 31, 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

20. Putin’s approval rating will remain above 50% in every reputable poll in December, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

21. This blog will achieve a day with at least 400 pageviews: 50%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

22. Comments on this blog this year will be more than last year: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

23. Mosul will be fully under control of the non-Islamic State forces on December 31, 2016: 40%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

24. Palmyra will be fully under the control of the Syrian government on December 31, 2016: 40%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

25. Raqqa will remain under the control of the Islamic State on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

26. No Gaza War this year: 50%.

NO GAZA WAR THIS YEAR

27. No intifada in the West Bank this year: 50%.

NO INTIFADA IN THE WEST BANK THIS YEAR

28. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more posts published than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2016: 90%.

UPDAT: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

29. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more pageviews than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

30. The Marginal Counterrevolution will have more pageviews per post than Against Jebel al-Lawz in 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

31. The Islamic State will continue to hold Syrtis on December 31, 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

32. Poroshenko will remain President of Ukraine on December 31, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

33. The dollar price of oil will be higher on December 31, 2016 than today: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

34. The price of oil will never be higher than $70 per barrel in 2016: 50%.

UPDATE: PRICE OF OIL WAS NEVER ABOVE $70 PER BARREL IN 2016

35. The price of oil will be lower than $60 per barrel on December 31, 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

36. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

37. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Japan: 80%.

38. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Vietnam: 90%.

39. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Indonesia: 100%.

40. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in Germany: 60%.

41. Same-sex marriage will continue to be unrecognized in the Philippines: 70%.

42. China will record growth of 8% or higher in 2016: 10%.

43. China will record growth of 4% or higher in 2016: 90%.

44. China will record growth of 5% or higher in 2016: 80%.

45. China will record growth of 6% or higher in 2016: 50%.

46. China will record growth of 7% or higher in 2016: 40%.

47. Ethiopia will record per capita growth of 7% or higher in 2016: 50%.

48. Ethiopia will record per capita growth of 3% or higher in 2016: 90%.

49. Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency: 50%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CLOSER TO THE OUTCOME THAN PREDICTION MARKETS

50. Trump will win the Republican nomination: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

51. Russia’s economy will record Q4-over-Q4 real GDP growth in 2016: 60%.

52. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 7%: 80%.

53. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 4%: 10%.

54. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 6%: 50%.

55. Russia’s unemployment rate will end the year below 5%: 30%.

56. Not one country will go off the Euro: 100%.

57. Mexico’s per capita GDP growth will be under 3% in 2016: 70%.

58. Mexico’s per capita GDP growth will be under 4% in 2016: 90%.

59. There will be at least two IS-inspired terrorist attacks in the United States that will each kill at least five people: 50%.

60. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be above 0% in 2016: 90%.

61. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be below 5% in 2016: 90%.

62. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be above 1% in 2016: 70%.

63. Belarus’s per capita GDP growth will be below 4% in 2016: 70%.

64. U.S. nominal GDP growth will be under 4% (year-to-year; not Q4 over Q4) in 2016: 90%.

65. U.S. nominal GDP growth will be under 3% in 2016 (year-to year; not Q4 over Q4): 50%.

66. U.S. unemployment will be lower than Russian in December 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

67. Russian life expectancy will increase in 2016: 70%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

68. The Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index will be lower on December 31 of this year than today: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

69. The U.S. will enter a recession in 2016: 40%. Normally, a yield curve like this would not indicate a recession for next year, but we do not live in normal times.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

70. Iran will not get a nuclear weapon: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

71. Russia will not invade any of the following: Finland, Alaska, the Baltic States, Poland: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

72. For the first December since the 1990s, the Japanese unemployment rate will be below 3% in December 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: ONLY 100% PREDICTION TO BE WRONG; IT WAS 3.1%

73. Netanyahu will still be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

74. Afewerki will still be dictator of Eritrea at the end of 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

75. Tunisia will still be a democracy at the end of 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

76. Libya will not be reunified in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

77. The Islamic State will expand in Libya between today and December 31, 2016: 50%.

ISLAMIC STATE DID NOT EXPAND IN LIBYA IN 2016

78. The Islamic State will expand in Afghanistan between today and December 31, 2016: 80%.

79. Violence in Afghanistan will increase in 2016: 80%.

80. Violence in Iraq will decrease in 2016: 60%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

81. Yemen will not be unified on December 31, 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

82. Syria will not be unified on December 31, 2016: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

83. Britain will vote to leave the E.U.: 50%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CLOSER TO THE OUTCOME THAN PREDICTION MARKETS

84. Turkish Cyprus will reunify with southern Cyprus: 10%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

85. Russia will hold on to Krim: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

86. Russian-backed forces will hold on to both the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

87. Not a single act of terror will be prevented in 2016 where formerly and presently secret NSA mass surveillance programs made a crucial difference: 100%.

UPDATE: NO EVIDENCE CONTRARY TO MY PREDICTION, SO IT STANDS

88. Chinese steel output will be lower in 2016 than in 2015: 80%.

89. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least one more country in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

90. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least five more countries in 2016: 50%.

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE WAS NOT LEGAL IN AT LEAST FIVE MORE COUNTRIES IN 2016

91. Same-sex marriage will be legal in at least ten more countries in 2016: 10%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

92. Vehicle miles driven per capita in the U.S. will be higher in 2016 than in 2015: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

93. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Turkey except against the Kurds that will kill more than five people in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

94. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Israel except against the Arabs that will kill more than five people in 2016: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

95. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Saudi Arabia except against the Shiites that will kill more than five people in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

96. The Islamic State will not carry out a single terrorist attack carried out by men within Qatar except against the non-Muslims that will kill more than five people in 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

97. Chinese GDP per capita (PPP) will be considered by the World Bank to be above that of Thailand in 2016: 90%.

98. I will be doing a retrospect on this list on a Windows 10 PC: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

99. Neither of my blogs will reach 100,000 pageviews this year: 50%.

UPDATE: NEITHER OF MY BLOGS REACHED 100,000 PAGEVIEWS THIS YEAR

100. Neither of my blogs will reach 100,000 pageviews combined this year: 20%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

101. My blogs will reach at least one million pageviews combined this year: 10%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

102. Not one presently Communist country will become known as a formerly Communist country by December 31, 2016: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

103. Obamacare will continue to be disapproved of by most Republicans: 100%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

104. I will be banned or shadowbanned by at least one website, Twitter feed, Facebook account, or YouTube channel by the end of this year: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

105. I will be banned or shadowbanned by at least five websites, Twitter feeds, Facebook accounts, or YouTube channels by the end of this year: 20%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

106. AHETPI/CPIAUCSL will be lower in 2016 than in 2015: 50%.

UPDATE: IT WAS HIGHER IN 2016 THAN 2015

107. My reading list will skew more toward right-wing sources on December 31, 2016 than today: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION CONFIRMED

108. I will finish at least three books of over 100 pages this year: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

109. I will finish Scott Sumner’s Midas Curse before the end of the month: 90%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

110. Not one person (myself excepted) will, as per the comment policy, post one or more PGP-encrypted comments encrypted with my public key on any of my blogs: 80%.

UPDATE: PREDICTION DISCONFIRMED

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